October Monthly Showing Report

The sales in October in Alberta had a jump of 22.1% over October 2019 with a total of 5,696 sales. This combined with the listing inventory dropping by 16.3% to 24,867 listings across the Province has helped keep the markets balanced with 4.37 months of supply.  The recent sales increase can be attributed to lowering inventory, low interest rates, a decline in household spending and increased savings.
All of the larger markets showed marked improvements year over year with the exception of Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray which both experienced slower months in sales.  That being said, even with the uptick in sales over recent months, it hasn’t been enough to exceed sales of 2019 except in the case of Lethbridge. The year to date adjustment in sales in the larger markets compared to last year during the same time frame are as follows:

CityOctober Y/Y%Year to date %
Calgary23%-6%
Edmonton24%-2%
Red Deer13%-7%
Lethbridge35%7%
Medicine Hat16%-6%
Grande Prairie-16%-20%
Fort McMurray-5%-12%

There are many factors that will determine how long the increased sales activity will last but some highlights from the month are:

  • The unemployment rate which has now dropped to 10.7% in Alberta, down from 11.7% in September.
  • The Oil and Gas sector has had oil production creep back to within 7% of production done in 2019 ytd. The Natural Gas price has also jumped 125% compared to October 2019 but is still down from pre pandemic levels.
  • Grain Deliveries are up 96% yr/yr which puts us 2nd in the Nation.
  • Soft wood is up 4.7% yr/yr.

When looking at the sales numbers across Alberta, we are incredibly proud of all of the CIR REALTORS® who have gone above and beyond for their clients this year as CIR’s sales volume was up 47.2% in October, and 24.3% ahead year to date compared to last year.  It remains to be critical to keep a positive outlook, while educating our clients with factual information to help them make the best decisions for their situation.  

Some quick numbers from the areas that our offices serve:After a brief pull back in showing and sales activity in August, the Real Estate Markets picked right back up in September with sales across the Province trending above the ten year average.   

  • CIR’s overall showing activity has begun to slow down coming into the Winter months, with most of the showings still occuring in the mid priced markets. While the sales across the Province were up 22.1% this October compared to last, CIR’s sales were up over 47%!  We continue to greatly outperform the markets month after month.
  • Airdrie’s market activity in October was the second busiest it has been in the past ten years, second only to the craziness of 2014!  There were 143 sales which is 50.5% higher year over year, and listing inventory continues to drop to 323 listings which is 29.2% below last October. This has led to 2.26 months of supply which is getting very close to sellers market territory.  The sales activity in the $300,000 to $999,000 range has greatly outperformed the sales of last year.
  • The sales in Brooks rose 54.5% year over year to 17 sales in October. This has jumped the ten year average of 12 deals for the month which has continued to help strengthen the market. That combined with a lower amount of inventory on the market has helped lower the months of supply to 4.59 months, and lowered the average days on market to 81.  The biggest improvements have been in the $200,000 to $499,999 price ranges.
  • Calgary sales had strong gains through this October compared to last with a 22.7% increase to 1,764 sales year over year. The sales were stronger in all price ranges this year which has helped continue to lower the months of inventory to 3.31 months. With less inventory coming onto the market, we are seeing the days on market drop to 53 days on average.  With the balancing market, it has helped rise the benchmark price to $422,600.
  • Canmore has had the busiest October in over a decade, with sales rocketing 61.7% higher than last October! With 76 sales, and the months of supply at 2.75 months it remains to be a very competitive market with steady inventory coming onto the market.
  • Cochrane’s market continues to outperform the 10 year average for total volume of sales, with sales in October exceeding those of the past decade during the same month!  WIth the sales remaining strong month over month, and the listing inventory continuing to drop, these conditions will support price increases in the market.  We are starting to see that take effect as the total residential benchmark price has risen to $415,6000 which is 2.3% higher than the start of the year.
  • Crowsnest Pass has out performed the past decadefor sales in October.  WIth sales rising to 18 in the month, it is 28.6% higher than last October.  This has helped maintain the balanced market conditions in the area which we anticipate to continue through the Winter months.
  • Sales in Lethbridge continue to rise with results 34.6% higher than October of last year!  With 175 sales in the month, and 21% lower inventory, the months of supply has dropped to 3.34 months helping keep the balanced sales conditions.The single family, detached homes are carrying the bulk of the market and seeing the greatest gains in value. 
  • The Real Estate market in Okotoks continues to outperform the ten year average for sales, seeing a 40.9% increase in sales this October compared to last.  The most noticeable increase year over year has been in the $400,000 to $699,999 price points. As a result, the total residential benchmark price has increased to $430,600 which is 0.5% higher than the beginning of the year.
  • The Olds real estate market is one of the few across the Province that saw a slow down in October compared to last year.  With 9 sales for the month, it was 18.2% slower year over year but the inventory has also been dropping helping the inventory levels drop to 10.11 months.  This continues to be a more challenging market where marketing a home with a compelling sales price is a must.
  • Red Deer’s Real Estate market had gains of 12.9% in sales this October compared to last. This was due to both the detached and semi detached markets showing noticeable improvement.  The Row and Apartment sectors continue to struggle, as is the high priced market.  There has been marked improvement in the $200,000 to $399,999 price points, and significant improvement for sales in the $400,000 to $499,999 price points. This activity has helped lower the months of supply to 5.01 months which moves it closer to balanced market conditions.
  • Rocky Mountain House had a very comparative month in October compared to the same time last year. With steady sales activity, and declining inventory, we are seeing the months of supply drop to 10.38 months. We are hoping to see this trend continue through the Winter months to bring more balanced markets to the area.  Until then, when selling a home in this type of market, having a compelling price is a big component to any marketing strategy.
     
  • The Strathmore market outperformed the ten year average for sales in October.  With the higher sales volume, and less inventory coming onto the market, it has edged closer to balanced markets in the area.  Most noticeable were the increases in sales in homes priced under $200,000, and the homes in hte $400,000 to $500,000 price range. Overall, the market in Strathmore does appear to be more balanced through 2020 than what was experienced in 2019.  
  • Sundre had a 60% increase in sales this October compared to last which greatly exceeded the ten year average for sales in the month. With lowering inventory, Sundre has entered into a more balanced market with 4 months of supply of inventory. This is an incredible number as the last time the months of supply was so low was in September 2012 when it was at 3.73 months. 

-CIR Realty

Weekly Showing Report

The weekly trend for showing activity across the Province continues to slow as we enter into the Winter months.  The total showing activity has dropped to 7.4% over the amount of showings at this time last year. This is a normal trend for the Alberta Real Estate market.
The showing activity for CIR Realty’s listings has also slowed seeing a 1,431 showings which is down -44 from the previous week. The highlight in this is that there was a higher than average amount of showings in the $700,000 – $800,000, and $1M+ markets. The sales activity for CIR also trended down, but remained much higher through the last week of October compared to last year during the same time period. 
With the slowing markets, pricing will remain critical as the decline in sales volume is slowly catching up to the decline in listing inventory.  

-CIR Realty

Weekly Showing Report

The showing activity has had a considerable slow down across the Province. It has dropped from what was 123.3% higher last week compared to last year, down to 113.5% this week compared to the same time last year. This is obviously still quite an improvement year over year as there is still a good amount of activity in the market.
Our showing activity at CIR Realty has not seen as much of a decline week over week, however our total showings for the week were down 93 showings from 1,568 showings to 1,475 showings this past week.  The activity that we are seeing is very consistent with what we have had all year, with the bulk of the showings happening in the lower to mid markets.  The sales activity for CIR Realty is currently trending over 52% higher this October compared to last.
An interesting point to note is that while the bulk of the sales across Alberta in October are occurring in the lower to mid price points below $600,000. All of the price points above $400,000 have had an increase in sales year over year, including in the $1M plus price.  There remains a good opportunity for people who are entering the market, move up the property ladder, or pick up investment properties. 

-CIR Realty

Q3 2020 HOUSING REPORT

Third-quarter activity was far better than original expectations, as sales activity in the city improved by nearly 12 per cent over last year’s levels. 

Some of the shift in the third quarter reflects activity that likely would have occurred in the second quarter. The housing market also benefited from easing lending rates and previous price declines. Gains were driven by all property types except apartment condominiums. 

“As the economy started to re-open, we saw some improvements in the economic indicators,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

“Most industries are not back to pre-pandemic levels, but over the past three months we have seen notable improvement across most industries.” 

The gains this quarter did not offset all of the earlier declines, but the year-to-date decline eased to nine per cent. This is a significant improvement from the first half of the year, where sales were sitting 20 per cent below last year’s levels. 

New listings were also on the rise. It was enough to cause inventories to trend up from the lower levels recorded earlier in the year, but inventories remain well below the levels recorded last year. 

Overall, the months of supply did tighten to levels well below the past two years. Improved supply/demand balances did support some modest improvements in prices, which trended up in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and remained only one per cent below last year’s levels.

Current conditions in the housing market are surprising, but there are several reasons to still be cautious: 

  • The current job market: Unemployment levels remain exceptionally high and there is added concern regarding additional job losses coming in the energy sector. If this situation persists, it could result in weaker demand and rising listings.
  • A second wave of COVID-19 and further shutdowns: Widespread closures are currently not expected, but if they do occur, this could be problematic for many businesses that cannot survive a second shutdown.
  • Government support: The housing market and overall economy has benefited from significant government income support programs, and banks allowing homeowners to defer their mortgage. As these benefits end, there is a risk that some households will not be able to keep their home, causing a rise in new listings and pushing up supply levels. If this occurs, it could erode some of the recent gains in pricing.

-CREB

Living Long and Well- The Fear of Outliving Your Money

My goal this year is to help each and everyone of you with your financial future. This month, I have chosen to chat about the golden years and how home owners over the age of 55 can learn about their home equity and how they can put it to work in order to live the very best life they possibly can.

Learning more about longevity and how we can be best prepared for the physical, social, and financial impact of a long life is a hot topic these days.

When it comes to ageing, Canadians have much to celebrate, we are not only living longer, but we are also living longer in good health. Collectively, we are learning more about longevity and how we can be best prepared for the financial impact of a long life.

Medical advances, improved living standards and healthier lifestyles have all contributed to the gains. Also known as the golden years, the third age is for many a time of personal fulfillment and achievement.

An interesting aspect of successful longevity is that there are benefits of ageing at home in your community rather than in institutional setting. These years stand for dignity and creativity, as well recognizes the social importance and public significance for our ageing population.

With the golden year comes the fear of outliving our money, it has become a top concern for a lot of people. A significant portion of Canadians are relying almost exclusively on the Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security, and Guaranteed Income Supplement. When you add all those up for most people, at the high end you are still looking at less than $20,000 a year. Does this sound like your situation by chance?

Cashflow can be a big concern for ageing Canadians especially with the cost of living today. Seniors that own their own home do have options to living a healthy, happy, dignified life by having the option to stay in their home if they wish to do so.

This may be the perfect time to learn about your personal financial situation and find out how your home equity can help you financially for years to come.

I am happy to help you have the best life possible, whether you would like help with your finances or any of your loved ones are fearful for their financial future, we are happy to connect you to a trusted advisor that can review your personal situation.

Regards,

Kevin D’Costa

INFOGRAPHICS: September 2020 CREB City And Region Market Reports

September sales activity jumped to 1,702 units, the strongest September total since 2014.

New listings in September improved over last month, but levels remained comparable to the previous year. The increase in sales relative to new listings did prevent any monthly gains in inventory levels, but supply in the market is still down 12 per cent compared to last year.

“The recent rise in new listings, combined with low lending rates and softness in prices, has helped support some of the recent upward trend in sales,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, conditions vary significantly based on the price range and property type.”

The adjustment in supply relative to demand has caused the housing market to move toward more balanced conditions. The current 3.7 months of supply represents the most balanced conditions seen for September in over five years. This has helped support some of the recent monthly gains in prices.

Total residential benchmark prices have trended up over the past three months, resulting in September prices that are similar to prices recorded at the same time last year.  

Despite some of the recent improvements, the impact of COVID-19 is still present. Year-to-date sales remain nearly nine per cent below last year’s levels, while city-wide prices are still over one per cent lower than last year. Considerable risk also weighs on the housing market due to economic uncertainty and a struggling labour market.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

With significant gains in the $400,000 – $600,000 range, September sales are the highest they have been since 2014.

Improving sales and easing new listings resulted in further reductions in inventory levels and caused the months of supply to ease to balanced territory. Recent improvements in the supply/demand balance have supported some upward price movements. As of September, the benchmark price was nearly one per cent higher than last year.

However, the year-over-year gains have been driven by the more affordable end of the market, as prices remain well below last year’s levels in both the City Centre and West districts of the city.

Semi-Detached

Given some recent monthly gains in new listings, sales in this sector improved in September, but at a slower pace than both the detached and row sectors. This could be related to the significant pullback in inventory.

September inventory levels were nearly 21 per cent lower than last year, the largest percentage decline in inventory among all property types. This shift in supply, along with improving sales, has started to help reduce the oversupply in this sector and ease the downward pressure on prices.

September prices remain nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels, but prices have started to improve in the South, South East and East districts of the city.

Row

Sales in this sector have continued to trend up for the past several months and September sales were significantly higher than last year’s levels.

While it was not enough to offset the pullback that occurred during the COVID-19 shutdown, row sales activity is four per cent lower than last year’s levels. The growth in sales could be related to the significant price adjustment that has occurred in this sector.

Prices in this sector have eased by seven per cent compared to last year and remain nearly 17 per cent below previous highs.

Apartment Condominium

All other sectors have seen some recent year-over-year gains in sales, but this sector continues to trend in the other direction. Year-to-date sales declined by 16 per cent, the largest decline among all property types.

At the same time, new listings continue to rise, which is causing further inventory gains. This is keeping the months of supply above seven months.

There have been some districts showing signs of price stabilization, but overall, year-to-date prices have eased by more than two per cent, amounting to a total adjustment from 2014 highs of over 18 per cent.


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

For the fourth consecutive month, year-over-year sales improved. As a result, year-to-date sales for the city total 1,055 units, a nine per cent increase over the previous year.

While new listings did rise this month, the improvement in sales outpaced the gains in new listings, preventing any significant shift in monthly inventory levels.  However, inventory levels are over 20 per cent lower than last year’s levels. And the months of supply has fallen to levels not seen since 2015. While prices remain below previous highs, tighter market conditions over the past four months have supported several months of price growth and September price levels are nearly one per cent higher than last year. These price gains were enough to cause year-to-date levels to stabilize relative to last year.

Cochrane

A reduction in new listings limited sales growth in September compared to August. However, September sales remain higher than last year and contributed to a year-to-date gain of nearly nine per cent.

Rising sales and easing inventories have kept the months of supply below four months, the lowest level seen since 2014. Tighter market conditions have supported an upward trend in prices over the past three months. The recent price gains did translate to year-over-year gains in September, but were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks, as year-to-date prices remain nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Okotoks

September sales continued to improve from the low levels recorded earlier in the year and levels recorded last September.

However, recent improvements were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks. Sales remain three per cent lower than last year’s levels, but this could be related to reduced inventory in the market.

Reductions in supply relative to demand have caused the months of supply to decline to three months. The tighter market conditions have caused prices to trend up over the past four months. However, both September and year-to-date prices remain lower than previous year’s levels.

Terence Leung 

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Weekly Showing Report

The showings across the Province have slowed slightly week over week.
The activity for CIR Realty’s listings have also slowed slightly with -85 less showings week over week. The mid price points seem to have slowed the most, while the lower price points picked up slightly. The sales have also slowed moderately, but continue to be above those compared to the same time last year.  

September 2020: home sales rise along with supply

September sales activity jumped to 1,702 units, the strongest September total since 2014.

New listings in September improved over last month, but levels remained comparable to the previous year. The increase in sales relative to new listings did prevent any monthly gains in inventory levels, but supply in the market is still down 12 per cent compared to last year.

“The recent rise in new listings, combined with low lending rates and softness in prices, has helped support some of the recent upward trend in sales,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, conditions vary significantly based on the price range and property type.”

The adjustment in supply relative to demand has caused the housing market to move toward more balanced conditions. The current 3.7 months of supply represents the most balanced conditions seen for September in over five years. This has helped support some of the recent monthly gains in prices.

“THE RECENT RISE IN NEW LISTINGS, COMBINED WITH LOW LENDING RATES AND SOFTNESS IN PRICES, HAS HELPED SUPPORT SOME OF THE RECENT UPWARD TREND IN SALES – ANN-MARIE LURIE, CREB® CHIEF ECONOMIST

Total residential benchmark prices have trended up over the past three months, resulting in September prices that are similar to prices recorded at the same time last year.

Despite some of the recent improvements, the impact of COVID-19 is still present. Year-to-date sales remain nearly nine per cent below last year’s levels, while citywide prices are still over one per cent lower than last year. Considerable risk also weighs on the housing market due to economic uncertainty and a struggling labour market.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

With significant gains in the $400,000 – $600,000 range, September sales are the highest they have been since 2014.

Improving sales and easing new listings resulted in further reductions in inventory levels and caused the months of supply to ease to balanced territory. Recent improvements in the supply/demand balance have supported some upward price movements. As of September, the benchmark price was nearly one per cent higher than last year.

However, the year-over-year gains have been driven by the more affordable end of the market, as prices remain well below last year’s levels in both the City Centre and West districts of the city.

Semi-Detached

Given some recent monthly gains in new listings, sales in this sector improved in September, but at a slower pace than both the detached and row sectors. This could be related to the significant pullback in inventory.

September inventory levels were nearly 21 per cent lower than last year, the largest percentage decline in inventory among all property types. This shift in supply, along with improving sales, has started to help reduce the oversupply in this sector and ease the downward pressure on prices.

September prices remain nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels, but prices have started to improve in the South, South East and East districts of the city.

Row

Sales in this sector have continued to trend up for the past several months and September sales were significantly higher than last year’s levels.

While it was not enough to offset the pullback that occurred during the COVID-19 shutdown, row sales activity is four per cent lower than last year’s levels. The growth in sales could be related to the significant price adjustment that has occurred in this sector.

Prices in this sector have eased by seven per cent compared to last year and remain nearly 17 per cent below previous highs.

Apartment Condominium

All other sectors have seen some recent year-over-year gains in sales, but this sector continues to trend in the other direction. Year-to-date sales declined by 16 per cent, the largest decline among all property types.

At the same time, new listings continue to rise, which is causing further inventory gains. This is keeping the months of supply above seven months.

There have been some districts showing signs of price stabilization, but overall, year-to-date prices have eased by more than two per cent, amounting to a total adjustment from 2014 highs of over 18 per cent.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

For the fourth consecutive month, year-over-year sales improved. As a result, year-to-date sales for the city total 1,055 units, a nine per cent increase over the previous year.

While new listings did rise this month, the improvement in sales outpaced the gains in new listings, preventing any significant shift in monthly inventory levels.  However, inventory levels are over 20 per cent lower than last year’s levels. And the months of supply has fallen to levels not seen since 2015. While prices remain below previous highs, tighter market conditions over the past four months have supported several months of price growth and September price levels are nearly one per cent higher than last year. These price gains were enough to cause year-to-date levels to stabilize relative to last year.

Cochrane

A reduction in new listings limited sales growth in September compared to August. However, September sales remain higher than last year and contributed to a year-to-date gain of nearly nine per cent.

Rising sales and easing inventories have kept the months of supply below four months, the lowest level seen since 2014. Tighter market conditions have supported an upward trend in prices over the past three months. The recent price gains did translate to year-over-year gains in September, but were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks, as year-to-date prices remain nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Okotoks

September sales continued to improve from the low levels recorded earlier in the year and levels recorded last September.

However, recent improvements were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks. Sales remain three per cent lower than last year’s levels, but this could be related to reduced inventory in the market.

Reductions in supply relative to demand have caused the months of supply to decline to three months. The tighter market conditions have caused prices to trend up over the past four months. However, both September and year-to-date prices remain lower than previous year’s levels.

-CREB