How’s the Market

While week over week showings have dwindled these past few weeks, sales remain strong considering the time of year. 

The first two weeks of December resulted in the third best start to the month for total transactions over the past decade during the same time period. The active listing inventory levels continue to drop, but remain higher than years prior to 2017. Looking back at the months of inventory over the past ten years in Alberta, the average was 7.6 months of inventory in December. We are currently sitting slightly higher than that which suggests that the market is slowing down. 

With less showings occurring, we are seeing a higher percentage of showings result in a transaction which means serious buyers are still looking. 

-Steven Phillips, CIR Realty

HOW’S THE MARKET

After what was one of Alberta’s strongest Novembers on record for sales, we are heading into December with the lowest inventory levels in November since 2005!

The migration into Alberta continues as the population has grown to 4,543,111 which is just about 100,000 more people since the third quarter of 2021. This is putting pressure on the rental market with inventory levels well below the same time as last year, and rent prices climbing as a result. The affordability of housing compared to other major cities in Canada, along with the opportunity for jobs is continuing to keep our Province as a major draw for people to move to.

Looking back at sales in Alberta over the top five Novembers in the past ten years, the sales volume dropped through December and January, recovering to numbers higher than Novembers sales in February of the New Year. The listing inventory for those same years also dropped through December to February, recovering to higher inventories by March the following year. Over the past decade, 50% of time the average price across Alberta dropped from November through to January and then recovered to a higher average price in February than what was recorded the November prior. In that same decade, there were two years where prices increased by January, one year was in March and the other in May.

ALBERTA SHOWINGS

When we look at the showings for listings across the Province, the trends show that sellers may get one more uptick of activity this coming weekend before the Holiday slow down occurs. 

CIR REALTY SHOWINGS

The showings at CIR Realty’s listings are also showing slowing activity but the inventory under $300,000 had an increase of activity. This is likely due to higher interest rates forcing buyers to explore lower price ranges. The showings resulting in transactions is still higher than average for the year sitting around 18%, but that number is dropping week over week.

Summary

Based on all of the information above, it is reasonable to conclude that if sellers want to sell in the coming months they will need to have a compelling price for buyers. If there is a time for buyers to take advantage of lowering price points, it will likely be in December and January as markets move into balanced and in some cases, buyers markets. But we anticipate sales to increase from February through Spring with the caveat being how low the listing inventory gets as we normally don’t see listings start to climb higher until March. Without inventory, we may see lower sales numbers for longer which will keep more competitive conditions in the market. 

With population increasing, rentals being competitive, sales remaining strong and low inventory levels, it is setting us up for a competitive Spring Market in the New Year.

-Steve Phillips, CIR Realty

Canada’s slumping housing market weighs on Home Capital’s loans

The tumult in Canada’s housing market is starting to take its toll on lenders, with Home Capital Group Inc. reporting a plunge in third-quarter originations.

Home Capital, which lends largely to borrowers considered somewhat riskier than prime customers, said Tuesday that single-family mortgage originations plummeted 28 per cent from a year earlier. The lender’s so-called Alt-A borrowers include self-employed workers or those who are new to Canada and don’t have extensive credit histories. Total mortgage originations fell 23 per cent to $1.85 billion (US$1.38 billion), missing the $2.5 billion estimate of Royal Bank of Canada analyst Geoffrey Kwan. 

Sales activity in Canada’s housing market has slowed, with transactions down 32 per cent in September from a year earlier, as the Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign ratchets up mortgage costs. Prices have fallen for seven straight months, and are down almost 9 per cent from their peak.

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The market spiral had yet to make its way to lenders’ results, with Canada’s biggest banks all reporting growth in their mortgage books in their most recent earnings. Home Capital’s results provide a window into a segment of borrowers who are considered riskier than those the big banks typically take on, and therefore pay more to borrow.

“The housing market is currently in a period of transition as buyers and sellers adjust to a higher-interest-rate environment,” Home Capital Chief Executive Officer Yousry Bissada said in a statement, adding that the Toronto-based company expects “softer market conditions to persist in the near term.”

The drop in originations contributed to Home Capital’s net income falling 43 per cent to $31 million, or 77 cents a share. Excluding some items, profit was 95 cents a share, matching analysts’ estimates.

Home Capital’s shares fell 4.8 per cent to $25.23 at 10:32 a.m. in Toronto, bringing their decline this year to 35 per cent. That’s the fourth-worst performance in the 29-company S&P/TSX Financials Index. 

Despite the market turmoil, Home Capital’s borrowers have continued to make payments on their mortgages. Net non-performing loans accounted for 0.16 per cent of gross loans last quarter. That compares with 0.15 per cent a year earlier and 0.47 per cent in the same period in 2020.

-Bloomberg

Winter Checklist

  • Check and clean or replace furnace air filters each month during the heating season. Ventilation systems, such as heat recovery ventilator filters, should be checked every two months.
  • After consulting your hot water tank owner’s manual, drain off a dishpan full of water from the clean-out valve at the bottom of your hot water tank to control sediment and maintain efficiency.
  • Clean your humidifier two or three times during the winter season.
  • Vacuum bathroom fan grills to ensure proper ventilation.
  • Vacuum fire and smoke detectors, as dust or spiderwebs can prevent them from functioning.
  • Vacuum radiator grills on the back of refrigerators and freezers, and empty and clean drip trays.
  • Check gauges on all fire extinguishers, and recharge or replace as necessary.
  • Check fire escape routes, door and window locks and hardware, and lighting around the home’s exterior. Ensure your family has good security habits.
  • Check the basement floor drain to ensure the trap contains water. Refill with water if necessary.
  • Monitor your home for excessive moisture levels – for instance, since condensation on your windows can cause significant damage over time and pose serious health problems, this requires corrective action.
  • Check all faucets for signs of dripping and change washers as needed. Faucets requiring frequent replacement of washers may be in need of repair or replacement.
  • If you have a plumbing fixture that’s not used frequently, such as a laundry tub or spare bathroom sink, tub or shower stall, briefly run some water to keep water in the trap.
  • Clean drains in the dishwasher, sinks, bathtubs and shower stalls.
  • Test plumbing shut-off valves to ensure they’re working and to prevent them from seizing.
  • Examine windows and doors for ice accumulation or cold air leaks. If found, make a note for repair or replacement in the spring.
  • Examine attic for frost accumulation. Check roof for ice dams or icicles. If there’s excessive frost or staining of the underside of the roof, or ice dams on the roof surface, be sure to have an expert look into the issue.
  • Check electrical cords, plugs and outlets for all indoor and outdoor seasonal lights to ensure fire safety. If showing signs of wear, or if plugs/cords feel warm, replace immediately.

Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday as recession fears grow

Even as warnings about a potential recession grow louder, the Bank of Canada is expected to announce another hefty interest rate hike on Wednesday, edging the bank closer to the end of one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles in its history.  

RBC senior economist Nathan Janzen says it’s a coin toss between the Bank of Canada choosing to raise its key interest rate by half a percentage point or three-quarters of a percentage point, though RBC is leaning toward the smaller increase. 

“It’s pretty clear that more aggressive interest rate hikes are still warranted,” Janzen said. 

Wednesday’s announcement would make it the sixth consecutive time the Bank of Canada raises interest rates this year in response to decades-high inflation. It also comes amid growing fears that a recession is looming. 

Last week, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland shifted her tone on the economy from her usual praises of Canada’s strong pandemic economic recovery. She warned tough times are ahead for Canadians. 

“Mortgage payments will rise. Business will no longer be booming,” Freeland said. “Our unemployment rate will no longer be at its record low.”

As well as the interest rate decision, the Bank of Canada will also release updated economic projections on Wednesday in its latest quarterly monetary policy report. The central bank’s outlook on inflation will be key to its plans for any additional rate hikes to come.

Since March, the Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate from 0.25 to 3.25 per cent, feeding into higher borrowing costs for Canadians and businesses.

And although inflation has been slowing in recent months thanks to tumbling gas prices, the central bank has made it clear it doesn’t believe its job is done just yet.   

“Simply put, there is more to be done,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said during a speech in Halifax on Oct. 6.  

As the Bank of Canada raises interest rates to bring inflation back to its two per cent target, officials at the central bank have expressed concern about how high inflation still is and its impact on consumer and business expectations for future inflation.  

In September, the annual inflation rate slowed to 6.9 per cent, though the bank’s preferred core measures of inflation, which tend to be less volatile, were unchanged from August. 

Grocery prices also continued to climb, with the cost of food up a staggering 11.4 per cent compared with a year ago.

There is some good news for the Bank of Canada on the inflation expectations front. Its recent business outlook survey showed businesses expect wages and prices to rise more slowly as their overall inflation expectations have eased. 

The good news, however, won’t be enough to dissuade the bank from another sizable rate hike, Janzen said.  

“There are some indicators that we’re past peak inflation rates. It’s just those inflation rates are still too high, currently, and still way too broad right now to prevent additional interest rate increases,” Janzen said.  

Most commercial banks expect one more interest rate hike after October before the bank hits pause on one of its most aggressive rate-hiking cycles in history.  

The effect of these rate hikes is expected to be felt more broadly in the economy next year as Canadians and businesses adjust their spending.  

While there is some division among economists on how severe the impending economic slowdown will be, many economists estimate the chances of a recession have grown.  

Recent surveys from the Bank of Canada reveal most Canadians and businesses also believe a recession is on the way. 

However, many economists have highlighted that Canada’s tight labour market might serve as a buffer during an economic downturn. In September, the unemployment rate was 5.2 per cent, which is considered to be quite low. 

Although the Bank of Canada has previously spoken about aiming for a “soft landing,” where inflation comes down without triggering a serious economic slowdown, Macklem said in recent weeks that the primary goal of the bank is to restore price stability.  

That commitment has sparked worries in labour groups, which have come out against the aggressive rate-hiking path over concerns about the potential impact of a recession on employment.  

A new report by the Centre for Future Work in collaboration with the Canadian Labour Congress is calling on the Bank of Canada to pause its rate hikes until it can assess the impact of previous interest rate increases on the economy.  

“After three years of dealing with both the health and the economic consequences of an unprecedented pandemic, the last thing Canadians can tolerate is another recession,” the report by Jim Stanford reads.  

Stanford, an economist and the director of the Centre for Future Work, makes the case in the report for a different approach to addressing high inflation.  

Instead of continuing along the path of higher interest rates, Stanford recommends the Bank of Canada balance its goal of restoring low and stable inflation with promoting economic growth and maintaining employment.  

In the report, Stanford also calls on the federal government to play a more active role in fighting inflation by exploring options such as tax increases on high-income earners and windfall taxes on profitable corporations.  

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to ½ %, with the Bank Rate at ¾ % and the deposit rate at ½ %. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant until such time as it becomes appropriate to allow the size of its balance sheet to decline.

The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a major new source of uncertainty. Prices for oil and other commodities have risen sharply. This will add to inflation around the world, and negative impacts on confidence and new supply disruptions could weigh on global growth. Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid and we are following events closely.

Global economic data has come in broadly in line with projections in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 more quickly than expected, although the virus continues to circulate and the possibility of new variants remains a concern. Demand is robust, particularly in the United States. Global supply bottlenecks remain challenging, although there are indications that some constraints have eased.

Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, the recovery in Canada’s labour market suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.

CPI inflation is currently at 5.1%, as expected in January, and remains well above the Bank’s target range. Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation is increasing the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.

The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement increases in the policy interest rate. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 13, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

-Bank of Canada

Eight areas to monitor to protect your home’s value and avoid costly repairs.

Whether old or new, a home is an investment worth protecting.

“The difference between a house the owner has paid attention to and one they have not can be amazing,” said Mike Becker, a home inspector for Calgary and surrounding areas with Pillar to Post Home Inspectors.

Homeowners can maintain the value of their investment by monitoring these areas of the home:

1. Property and Site

“After buying a new home, the grade and property may be in a state of settling and the most important part of this will be drainage,” said Becker. “Mature lots will typically have good drainage, but should still be monitored, particularly after major runoffs or new landscaping.”Watch for:

  • Drainage must move away from the structure.
  • Monitor during snow melts and heavy rain.
  • Most newer lots require some regrading once they settle, sometimes five to 10 years out, but always monitor.

Investment:

  • Repairs = $3 to $6 per square foot.

2. Roof

Michael Babisky, general manager at Astoria Homes, said the top concern for Calgary homeowners should be regular roof inspections. “I recommend every three to six months, especially with the frequent wind and hail here.”Watch for:

  • Implement a regular maintenance schedule for shingles and flashings after five years.
  • Characteristics of shingles near the end of usefulness: curling up, rounded edges and granule surface wearing off.
  • Caulking usually lasts three to five years and should be refreshed.
  • Inspect after severe weather.

Investment:

  • Gutter cleaning = $150 to $300.
  • Gutter replacement = $7 to $9 per linear foot.
  • Asphalt replacement = $3 to $7 per square foot.

3. Exterior

“The majority of houses are being done with vinyl siding – a good, long-lasting material, assuming it has been installed correctly,” said Becker. “Wall covering, such as siding or stucco, nearing end of life are usually very apparent.”Watch for:

  • Loose or incorrectly fitted siding around openings, where moisture can reach the structure or wind might blow siding off. Seal holes with caulking and replace damaged pieces.
  • Exterior penetrations, such as those around gas lines/meters and furnace venting, require yearly re-caulking.

Investment:

  • Repairs = $5 to $6 per square foot.
  • Replacement can be more economical than repair costs.

4. Attic

“Typically, people are only accessing the attic if they are running wires or when something has already gone wrong, especially leaks,” said Becker.Watch for:

  • Condensation from the living area can build up and stain the ceiling, or worse. • Check for condensation when it’s cold outside. Look for signs of frost on the sheathing or around the attic hatch.
  • Over time, attic insulation can lose volume, reducing its R value. Improve thermal efficiency by adding more insulation.

Investment:

  • Insulation = $2 to $5 per square foot.

5. Structure

“Usually, if there are structural problems, they’re not something that can be fixed with maintenance,” said Becker. “But monitoring is best.”Watch for:

  • Doors not opening and closing properly anymore.
  • Cracks in finishing might indicate structural problems, but don’t always require action. Monitor over time for possible moisture penetration or foundational movement.

6. Electrical

“Nearly every do-it-yourself home renovation project I have seen (involving electrical) has safety issues,” said Becker. “Get an electrician, I cannot say this enough.”Watch for:

  • Mis-wired receptacles can damage electronics or cause shocks, sparks and/or fires.
  • Professional installations should be maintenance-free unless something fails, like a ground fault circuit breaker/receptacle. These should be replaced.
  • A very hot distribution panel might indicate problems. Don’t touch it, call an electrician.

Investment:

  • Repairs = $150 to $250 per hour, plus material costs.

7. Heating

“There will come a time when replacing the furnace heating system will be more economical than the repairs and maintenance, but I have inspected many houses with furnaces 25-plus years old that have been well maintained,” said Becker.Watch for:

  • Prior to winter each year, Becker suggests opening the front panels to take a picture of the furnace for yearly comparison. Water or rust indicate it might be time for inspection.
  • Yearly furnace cleaning is key to maximizing its life, Babisky says. “Clean the humidifier at the same time.”
  • Replace filters every six months.
  • After 10 years, implement a regular furnace maintenance schedule, with inspection by an HVAC professional.

Investment:

  • Annual service and cleaning = $250 to $500.
  • Furnace replacement = $3,600 to $4,700.

8. Plumbing

“Get leaks fixed as soon as possible,” said Becker.Watch for:

  • Leaks around slow-draining sinks, bathtubs and showers.
  • Less available hot water or the pilot light repeatedly going out. Repairs can often add years to appliances.
  • Water heaters typically last 10 to 15 years, but can fail at any time, usually unexpectedly.

Investment:

  • Repairs = $150 to $250 per hour, plus material costs.
  • Water heater replacement = $800 to $1000.

 

-Natalie Noble

April brings a slight inventory decline

There have been no significant changes occurring in sales activity, but the number of new listings coming onto the market continues to ease relative to 2018 levels.

The decline in new listings was enough to start chipping away at overall inventory levels, which have eased slightly compared to last year.

The slight adjustment in supply levels has helped support further reductions in the months of supply, which was 4.6 months in April. While this level still represents oversupply in our market, it does reflect improvement from the nearly seven months of supply that we saw at the start of the year.

“Demand remains relatively weak in the resale market. However, if supply levels continue to adjust, this could help reduce the amount of oversupply and eventually support some price stability,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

As of April, the total residential benchmark price in Calgary was $415,900. This is slightly higher than last month, but still nearly five per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Citywide sales were 1,547 units in April, two per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-to-date sales remain nearly six per cent lower than last year and are 26 per cent below longer-term averages.

“Sales have been improving mostly in the lower price ranges, causing tighter supply conditions in that segment.  This will likely have a different impact on price trends in the lower price ranges depending on location,” said Lurie.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales improved by nearly three per cent in April compared to last year, due to gains in homes priced under $500,000. However, with 930 sales, activity still remain 24 per cent below long-term averages.  Recent gains were also not high enough to offset pullbacks earlier in the year, causing year-to-date sales to fall by over five per cent.
  • Improving sales did not occur across all districts. In April, there was growth in the North East, North West, South and South East districts of the city. Despite some signs of sales improvement, overall sales activity remains well below 10-year averages throughout every region in the city.
  • April detached inventories citywide continue to remain just above levels recorded last year. Months of supply remain relatively unchanged at four months.
  • The amount of oversupply has varied significantly depending on the area of the city. Months of supply has only risen in the City Centre, South and West districts of the city.
  • Despite some of the adjustments occurring in the detached sector, overall April prices remain lower than last year’s levels across all districts. Year to date, the largest year-over-year declines occurred in in the City Centre, North West and South districts.

Apartment

  • Despite the affordability of apartment condominiums, sales activity continues to fall across the city and in most districts. There have been 714 apartment condominium sales so far this year, the lowest level since 2001.
  • The decline in new listings has started to outweigh the sales decline, causing inventories to ease. As of April, resale apartment condominium inventories totaled 1,546 units, 16 per cent lower than inventory levels last April.
  • The easing inventories have also caused the months of supply to decline to just above six months. While this is still a buyers’ market, this trend could help ease the downward pressure on prices if it continues.
  • Apartment condominium prices in April totalled $250,400, comparable to last month, but over two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 17 per cent below 2014 highs.

Attached

  • Attached sales activity improved compared to last year’s levels for the second straight month, almost offsetting the declines occurring in the first two months of the year.  Year-to-date sales were 1,113 units, nearly one per cent below last year’s levels, and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
  • Year-to-date sales have improved in all districts except the City Centre, North West and West.
  • Improved sales and easing listings have helped prevent further inventory gains in this sector and overall months of supply have trended down to five months.
  • Following several months of prices trending down, semi-detached benchmark prices in April rose over the previous month. However, prices remain over five per cent below last year’s levels at $395,300.
  • Row prices were $284,900 in April, over five per cent below last year’s levels.


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

  • Stronger sales in March and April offset earlier declines, causing year-to-date sales to total 363 units, similar to levels recorded last year. New listings continue to decline, causing April inventories to ease compared to last year. Months of supply remain elevated at five months, but this is a notable improvement compared to last year, when months of supply was over six months.
  • Rising sales and easing inventories helped prevent further price declines in April compared to March. However, overall, April prices remained nearly four per cent below last year’s levels. Prices have eased across all property types, with the largest year-to-date decline in the apartment sector at eight per cent.

Cochrane

  • Despite improving sales in April, year-to-date sales in Cochrane eased by six per cent compared to last year. However, new listings have also eased, helping reduce some of the inventory in the market.  While inventories and months of supply remain elevated, for the first time since June 2018, the months of supply fell below six months.
  • Some improvement with oversupply has likely prevented further monthly declines in prices. As of April, total benchmark prices remain over three per cent below last year’s levels for a total of $415,100.

Okotoks

  • Despite some recent improvements in sales, year-to-date sales activity slowed compared to last year. New listings have also eased, but it was not enough to prevent further inventory gains, keeping months of supply above five months.
  • The amount of oversupply has impacted prices. April residential prices totalled $406,700. This is nearly four per cent below last year’s levels. Price declines were slightly higher in the attached sector, with a year-over-year decline of nearly five per cent.

-CREB

Job market weakness and lending restrictions a common thread in 2018’s housing market

As oversupply continues in Calgary’s housing market, December prices eased by one per cent compared to last month and are over three per cent below last December.

“Persistent weakness in the job market and changes in the lending market impacted sales activity in the resale market this year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“This contributed to elevated supply in the resale market, resulting in price declines.”

December sales totalled 794 units, a 21 per cent decline over the previous year. Overall year-to-date sales in the city totalled 16,144 units. This is a 14 per cent decline over 2017 and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.

Inventory levels in December sat at 4,904 units. This is well above levels recorded last year and 30 per cent above typical levels for the month. Elevated resale inventories in 2018 were caused by gains in the detached and attached sectors.

Throughout 2018, the months of supply remained elevated and averaged 5.2 months. This contributed to the annual average benchmark price decline of 1.5 per cent. Price declines occurred across all product types and have caused citywide figures to remain over nine per cent below the monthly highs recorded in 2014.

“Both buyers and sellers faced adjustments in expectations this year. Sellers had to compete with more choice in the resale market, but also the new-home market,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“With less people looking for a home, it became a choice between delaying when to sell or adjusting the sale price. However, buyers looking for more affordable product did not find the same price adjustments that existed in some of the higher price ranges.”

 

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales declined across all districts in 2018. With citywide sales of 9,945 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the year.
  • Detached inventories were higher than last year’s levels for each month of the year, including December. Slow sales caused the market to be oversupplied through most of 2018.
  • Detached benchmark prices totalled $481,400 in December, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. Overall, 2018 prices declined by 1.5 per cent compared to last year.
  • Prices have eased across most districts in 2018. The largest declines this year have occurred in the North East, North West and North districts.

 

Apartment

  • Apartment sales totalled 2,663 units in 2018. While the decline is less than other product types, levels are 22 per cent below long-term averages.
  • The apartment condominium sector has struggled with oversupply for almost three years and 2018 was no exception.
  • However, supply has been easing, as inventories this year averaged 1,584 units, one per cent below last year’s levels.
  • Despite slowing supply growth, the market remained oversupplied, causing further price declines. In December, benchmark prices were $251,500, over two per cent below last year. Annually, prices have declined by nearly three per cent for a total decline of 14 per cent since 2014.
  • Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.

 

Attached

  • Declines for both row and semi-detached product resulted in 2018 attached sales of 3,536 units, a 15 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
  • Slower sales activity prompted some pull-back in new listings, but this was limited to the row sector. Row new listings declined by four per cent and semi-detached new listings rose by nearly 15 per cent in 2018.
  • Despite some adjustments to new listings, inventory levels remained elevated, keeping the market in buyers’ market territory and putting downward pressure on prices.
  • In December, the semi-detached benchmark price totalled $397,500. This is a monthly and year-over-year decline of 0.8 and 3.8 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as 2018 prices remain just below 2017 levels. Overall, annual prices remain 1.4 per cent below 2014 peak levels.
  • Row prices have also been edging down. As of December, row prices were $288,400, a 1.5 per cent decline from last month and nearly four per cent below last year’s levels. Overall, 2018 prices remain two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

  • In 2018, the Airdrie housing market was distinctly marked by oversupply and signs of buyers’ market conditions. Compared to last year, inventory levels and months of supply have been significantly higher, combined with lower levels of sales. This has led to downward pressures on the benchmark price for detached homes.
  • Annual residential sales exhibited a year-over-year decline of 14 per cent and were almost 19 per cent lower than activity over the past 5 years. This consistent decline was observed across all product types.
  • Supply in 2018 was at record-high levels, with new listings achieving a new year-to-date peak for most of the year. Inventories have also been continuously increasing throughout this year and are 12 per cent higher than in 2017. Months of supply have increased steadily and averaged 5.6 months in 2018.
  • Persistent oversupply has resulted in a decline in Airdrie prices.  In 2018 detached benchmark prices averaged $369,042, over two percent below last year

 

Cochrane

  • Declining by 64 units, 2018 sales in Cochrane were lower than the previous year. However, an annual count of 599 sales remains comparable to activity over the past three years.
  • In 2018 there were 1,288 new listings, the highest on record.  Elevated new listings and easing sales resulted in rising inventories and months of supply that averaged nearly 7 months.
  • Elevated supply has caused detached prices to trend down over the second half of the year, however, it was not enough to offset earlier gains.  In 2018, detached benchmark prices have remained comparable to last year.

 

Okotoks

  • 2018 residential sales in Okotoks were 463 units, a decline over last year and comparable to 2010 activity.
  • Gains in new listings combined with slower sales resulted in rising inventory and excess supply in this market.
  • Despite increased supply and weak sales, detached home prices in Okotoks showed modest increases in 2018. The average detached benchmark price totalled $434,875, which is one per cent higher than last year.

 

-CREB